Consider this: with more than 800,000 square feet of mid- to big-box vacant retail space on the market, the area still is seeing construction of two mega shopping centers and recent headlines of who'll be the first to build the next regional mall, probably somewhere along Interstate 75. And recently, Beall's department store announced plans to move into the 80,000-square-foot space at Cypress Trace Shopping Center, formerly occupied by Home Depot, in South Fort Myers.

How is this possible? It is primarily the result of the county's unique demographics and shifting population patterns. For the last two decades Lee County has been a leader in population, winter-visitor and tourism growth.

What is really impressive is that this abundance of vacant retail space in the market, which in many places would be a sure sign of economic decline, is simply an indication that retailers are moving to where their customers are, not away.

We can see this trend in two recent projects.

Mega Centers

Construction is well underway on the Miromar Outlet Mall at the northeast corner of the I-75 and Corkscrew Road interchange. The first phase of the project is 200,000 square feet with future phases bringing the total to 600,000 square feet, more than half the size of Edison Mall. The project finds itself right in the middle of one of Lee County's fastest growing communities.

On the same side of I-75 between Alico and Corkscrew roads is Florida Gulf Coast University, which just began its second full year as Florida's newest state university with an enrollment of more than 3,000 students. Add to that dormitories built during the summer, and the university is starting the process of no longer being just a commuter school. That means even more opportunities for nearby retailers like Miromar.

Between Miromar and FGCU we are also seeing the Florida Everblades minor league hockey facility nearing completion. Southwest Florida's newest sports franchise is building a 180,000-square-foot, $20 million multi-purpose facility that will be host to not only hockey games but a variety of entertainment events, including ice-skating shows, dance troupes, basketball and wrestling. The 7,500-seat arena is positioning itself to become Southwest Florida's newest large-seating entertainment venue.

The area immediately surrounding these projects, Estero, also is experiencing explosive growth, fueled by several large housing projects. In fact, Estero's property tax base showed the largest increase (20.9 percent) of any area in the county during 1998.

Miromar, which is poised to have name stores such as Nike, Westpoint Stevens, Haggar and Florsheim, also is well positioned to benefit from Naples' high-income demographics. You could say it is definitely springing up within a growing customer base.

Farther north along Lee County's most famous thoroughfare, U.S. 41 (Tamiami Trail), the Page Field area is getting a new retail look with Page Field Commons a 314,000-square-foot retail center that began moving dirt in the summer. Located in the western portion of the general aviation airport that was cut away when the Boy Scout Road/Fowler Street Connector was finished, the site has the advantage of being seen and accessed from both busy U.S. 41 and the connector road.

The site also has the distinction of being the last infill parcel suitable for a shopping center along U.S. 41 between Colonial Boulevard and College Parkway.

The center is lining up new tenants such as CarpetMax, Hops Restaurant & Brewery, Party City and Old Navy, and repositioned ones such as Toys R Us, which moved from Colonial Boulevard after the U.S. 41 flyover accesses restricted its entrance by the Midpoint Memorial Bridge project.

Growing Population Segments

What makes our strong local retail industry possible is the area's three population segments. Lee County's population, now an estimated 406,000, is growing at more than 900 new residents a month and continues to rank as one of the 50 fastest growing metro areas in the United States.

Add to that a seasonal population from December through April that balloons the resident population by anywhere from 60,000-to-100,000 people -- that's a lot of additional people in a four-to-six month period.

Finally, as a visitor destination, our area receives more than 1.8 million tourists each year, many of them foreigners primed to shop for U.S. brands they may not be able to get in their own countries. Those tourists spend nearly $900 million in our county, according to estimates from the Lee County Visitor and Convention Bureau.

Regional Mall Madness

Which is why there is talk, even with all this vacant and new space coming to market of the county's next regional mall.

We're talking about something that likely will dwarf the Edison Mall in Fort Myers and the Coastland Mall in Naples. Because this will be a "super-regional" mall drawing from all three coastal Southwest Florida counties, it is probably going to be along I-75, although at least one group has proposed a regional mall for north Cape Coral.

So far, the FGCU area looks like the hottest area. In May 1997, the Cleveland-based Richard E. Jacobs Group announced plans to build such a 1.2 million- to 1.4-million-square-foot mall at the southeast corner of the I-75/Alico Road Interchange. In July of this year, Maryland-based Rouse Company announced a regional mall for across I-75 just south of Alico Road and west of Three Oaks Parkway. It is likely to be a race now to see who can get all of the approvals, sign up enough tenants and dig dirt first, because it is unlikely this area can support two such huge malls, especially this close together.

Where does this leave the Lee County's retail industry? Strong, despite an amount of vacant space that in other, less dynamic markets would sound the death knell for an industry. Based on the future plans of retail developers, it is only going to get better.

Frank D'Alessandro is the CEO of Grubb &Ellis|VIP - D'Alessandro, a full-service commercial real estate company located in Fort Myers.