Visions of hurricanes dance in their heads.

Unless you look in the right places, there's little evidence that several hurricanes ripped through Southwest Florida in the past two years. Downed trees have been cleared away, most blue tarps have disappeared and reconstruction is barely discernible from the nonstop new construction. Yet hurricanes are continuing to do damage as would-be tourists, spooked by images from Charley, Wilma and even Katrina, reconsider their vacation plans.

"Unquestionably, the result of two years of hurricanes is still being felt," says Walter Klages, president and CEO of The Klages Group, which in cooperation with Research Data Services tracks tourism for clients in Southwest Florida and other regions. "It's not so much a question of reconstruction of affected areas as it is a widely held confusion that we have not fully recovered, and that the damage was far more extensive."

Becky Bovell, director of the visitor's bureau in Charlotte County, which was hit hard in 2004 by Hurricane Charley, is more optimistic. "The things that people have been coming to Charlotte Harbor and the Gulf islands for were left largely intact. All those natural amenities that were here still are: boating, paddling, fishing, birding," she says. "I really don't think it will have a long-lasting [effect]. We had four, and that's an aberration. Nobody expects that to happen again."

In fact, more visitors are coming to Southwest Florida than before the storms, and they are spending more money. But "the 'windy season,' as it's being called now," says Klages, is currently the most destructive force in the tourism industry.

"We're still getting questions about hurricanes and damage," says Lee County's Visitor and Convention Bureau executive director D.T. Minich. "They don't realize we've been cleaned up for months."

That South Seas Island Resort, the largest property in Lee County, was still closed 19 months later only added to tourists' concerns. (South Seas, among several MeriStar Hospitality properties on Sanibel and Captiva recently acquired by an affiliate of The Blackstone Group, partially reopened

in March.)

After Charley, says Klages, "we had anticipated that as normalcy returned, [visitors'] mindsets would also come back to equilibrium. Initially they seemed to, but with Katrina and Wilma, there is now renewed anxiety about what [hurricanes] will do. A lot of people are very confused," he adds. "It scares the patooki out of people."

Summertime Scares

Perceptions of storm damage led to a "stuttering start" to tourist season, says Klages. In January, Collier had an estimated 144,160 visitors compared with 150,580 in January 2005; Lee County, with about 198,300 visitors, was down 1.3 percent, according to reports by The Klages Group.

But unseasonable temperatures were also factors, points out Jack Wert, executive director of the Naples, Marco Island, Everglades Convention and Visitors Bureau. "It was warmer up North than it traditionally is, and it was cold here," he says. "The rest of season looks strong," and a late Easter extended it.

The real challenge is not in winter, when people flee the frigid North for Florida's warmth and sunshine, but in summer, when oppressive heat, humidity and mosquitoes descend-along with hurricane season.

"People have started to talk about the new season. Their travel intentions have changed for May, June and the first two weeks of July," says Klages.

On the bright side, many Southwest Florida visitors in the summer are Floridians-and they are learning to roll with the winds, says Barry Brown, director of sales and marketing for Sanibel Harbour Resort & Spa. People whose getaways are disrupted by brewing hurricanes just reschedule.

But others are deciding, if they do come to Florida, to come earlier and for shorter stays. That's especially true with German and British tourists, a strong summertime sector heavily courted by Southwest Florida's tourism officials. In addition, the value of the euro has dropped, making U.S. travel less of a bargain, says Klages.

With direct air service to Germany, "we've always had good visitation from those markets. They come in the summer, stay longer and spend more money," says Wert. "Right after Sept. 11 it really dropped off, and it was summer 2004 before it started to come back."

Florida competes for those travelers with beach locations throughout the world-all of which know about the U.S. hurricane woes, says Klages. "They're very, very much aware that our market now has an Achilles' heel."

However, foreign competitors are seen as more vulnerable to terrorism. "There clearly is a tremendous dislike" of the Bush administration and policies, says Klages, who in March attended ITB Berlin, an international travel fair. "However, the perception is that we have done a good job of keeping this country safe."

Who's Coming

The Midwest has historically been Southwest Florida's primary feeder market, while Northeasterners have gone to Southeast Florida. But the expansion and additional flights at Southwest Florida International Airport (RSW) are bringing more Northeastern visitors, says Steve Greenstein, executive director of the Sanibel and Captiva Islands Chamber of Commerce.

More 26- to 39-year-olds also are in the mix, he adds. "[It's] still baby boomer driven, but [increasingly also] driven by Generation X and the Millennials. They have more money, they spend more, and they have experience coming here before with Grandma or their parents."

Plus, baby boomers are reaching retirement age, says Klages. "The travel market has benefited tremendously over the past 10 to 15 years from the affluence of this group. Now it's nearing retirement, and once they retire, they're no longer really tourists. If they choose to retire in other parts of the South, like Arizona or New Mexico, then that will have an effect on us."

As a hotspot for Midwesterners, Southwest Florida will also feel impacts from the auto-industry troubles, because job uncertainty and early retirement affect vacation planning. "There's a significant effect on middle management, and they're clearly part of our customer base," he says.

Small Numbers, Big Spenders

Hurricane Charley blew away Charlotte County's 2004 tourist season, along with lodgings and normalcy in the Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte area.

"We lost a third of our lodging. About 80 percent is back, but lodging is not where it should be in quality or in quantity," says Bovell. Rentals that remained were quickly occupied by displaced residents or incoming construction and FEMA workers, so they weren't available to visitors or snowbirds.

"However, [the destruction] has accelerated additional infrastructure. We have seven or eight new hotels in the process of development," she says. Harbor Pointe Resort has opened in Charlotte Harbor, and Port Charlotte will have four new hotels. In Punta Gorda, the Harbor Inn Resort & Yacht Club is rising on the site of the former Holiday Inn, and the coming City Marketplace will include a boutique hotel.

Shops, restaurants and other tourism infrastructure are also taking shape. "What might have happened in five years [before Charley] has moved to the front burner, and we're going to see it in two to three years," she says.

Lee County's 2005 tourism was up 1 percent over 2004, with 2,047,540 visitors; and more passengers debarked at RSW, which Minich attributes to population growth, because occupancy was down 2 percent, according to a Research Data Services report.

Brown believes Southwest Florida is losing tourists to Florida cities with lower airfares. "It's more expensive to fly into Fort Myers. That has been a reason some people have chosen not to come here versus Fort Lauderdale or Tampa or Orlando," he says. "We were hopeful with the opening of the new airport [expansion] that it was going to have a downward rate effect."

Although Hurricane Wilma hit Collier in 2005, it was one of the few Florida counties spared by 2004's storms, which made it "an abnormally high year [for tourism]," says Wert. "We got a great deal of visitors from other counties who were displaced by the hurricanes."

Collier County's 1.4 million visitors in 2005 was down 2.2 percent from 2004 but up 6.9 percent from 2003, according to a report by Research Data Services, and the estimated $713.4 million they spent was 4.7 percent more than in 2004 and more than 20 percent higher than in 2003.

Bargains on the Internet have been driving down prices in recent years, but Sid Kalmans, who co-owns the Lemon Tree Inn in Naples and owns the Hotel Caravelle in St. Croix, sees that changing. "Over the fall and first part of this year, for the first time since Sept. 11, there has not been pressure [to undercut competitors] on hotel rates. Internet business, which went from nothing to the majority of our bookings, has leveled out," he says. "Average daily rates have gone up considerably. We're seeing rate increases of 10 to 15 percent. We've been that way since November in St. Croix and Naples."

Tax Returns

Charlotte, Collier and Lee counties all raised tourist taxes on accommodations in 2005, producing more funds to drum up business and to maintain beaches and other amenities that keep tourists coming.

In Collier, the tax rose from 3 percent to 4 percent and is expected to produce about $3 million for a total of $13 million, says Wert. "Half of that goes into beach renourishment, and the rest is split between museums and administrative costs and advertising.