Leading Question

>>Looking at the numbers, one could conclude the crystal ball has played a costly trick on one district while serving another well. And the ability to predict successfully has a lot of money riding on it, as is told by many districts across Florida, where enrollment fell thousands short of estimates last year. Districts get state funds based on enrollment, and a shortfall from the projections one year means they get fewer dollars the next.

For several years, the rush of new students entering local schools has kept officials hopping, as they must figure out ahead of time how many more classrooms they'll need, not to mention administrators, teachers and support staff. Determining the estimates often involves consultations between the districts and planners, who can report on future housing developments and trends. That information combined with population projections help provide the intelligence.

But last year the system went awry in many Florida school districts, including Collier's, where predicted growth did not materialize. "We're flat this year," says Theron Trimble, director of full-time equivalent (FTE) students, surveys and allocation for the District School Board of Collier County.

Collier has experienced new-student increases of roughly 5 percent annually over the past 10 years, and during that period, estimates reported to the state for future funding were reliable. Most recently, enrollment went up by 1,615 in 2003-2004 and 1,468 in 2004-2005. But the following year took officials by surprise, even though they anticipated a slowdown that would add between 1,000 and 1,200 new students. The reality: District enrollment added only 195 to its 43,000-plus population.

"It's going to cost us in the neighborhood of $12 million," says Trimble of the underestimate. That deficit will be reflected in state funding allocations coming this school year. Some of those budgeted costs will be covered by reserves, he says.

Why were estimates so far off? "Our finance officer attributes the reduction to the cost of housing," says Trimble. "The cost of housing is too expensive for families with young children to live here."

That's one major factor felt statewide, according to Keith Neel, education funding director at the Florida Department of Education. "The cost of property in coastal Florida is increasing," he says. "People can't afford to live there." That means families either leave the state or avoid moving here.

Blame also falls on Mother Nature. "[Another] reason is the hurricanes. They seemed to have a negative effect on FTE enrollment," says Neel. When it's time to project enrollment, "you cannot forecast acts of God," he adds. Across Florida, fewer than 30,000 students enrolled compared with roughly 65,000 the previous several years.

So far, Lee County's enrollment has stayed the course, living up to expectation. The number of new students entering classes is once again expected to hit 5,000.

"We definitely have not dropped off. We're adding kids every day," says district spokesman Joe Donzelli. Currently there are an estimated 78,657 students.

Lee County might be more affordable than Collier, but Donzelli sees how rising housing costs are affecting the decisions his colleagues must make. For example, when home prices in Cape Coral became prohibitive, families with school-age children made Lehigh Acres a popular place to buy. That requires officials to make plans for new schools there, while monitoring and predicting enrollment shifts elsewhere in the district. "It's a delicate balance," he says.

-Phil Borchmann